DOI: 10.1785/bssa0630031119. Deterrence and false alarms in seismic discrimination

Deterrence and false alarms in seismic discrimination

10.1785/bssa0630031119

Crossref journal-article

Seismological Society of America (SSA)

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (790)

Abstract

abstract The statistical capabilities of Ms:mb earthquake-explosion discrimination are derived from cumulative distributions of a linear discrimination parameter with confidence limits estimated by a distribution-free method. Cumulative discriminant distributions are shown to be preferable to previously employed “operating characteristics” because of difficulties of construction and interpretation of the latter. Three sets of Ms:mb discrimination data, two regional (North American and Eurasian) and one global, are employed to estimate false alarm probabilities at given “deterrence” (probability of correct identification of an explosion) for situations of both a ban and no ban on underground testing. In the hypothetical situation of monitoring a test ban using the Ms:mb criterion, reasonable deterrence (nominally 30 per cent, with a 95 per cent confidence that it is greater than 10 per cent) will be accompanied by a false alarm probability estimated from global data of about 0.1 per cent.

Bibliography

Weichert, D. H., & Basham, P. W. (1973). Deterrence and false alarms in seismic discrimination. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 63(3), 1119â1132.

Authors 2

D. H. Weichert (first)
P. W. Basham (additional)

References 20 Referenced 9

10.2307/3001936 / Biometrics / Fitting a straight line when both variables are subject to error by Bartlett ((1949))
10.1139/e69-147 / Can. J. Earth Sci. / Canadian detection and discrimination thresholds for earthquakes and underground explosions in Asia by Basham ((1969))
10.1111/j.1365-246X.1969.tb06375.x / Geophys. J. / Canadian magnitudes of earthquakes and nuclear explosions in southwestern North America by Basham ((1969))
{'key': '2021092015570673000_BIB4', 'first-page': '1', 'article-title': 'Discrimination between earthquakes and underground explosions employing an improved Ms scale: supplementary magnitude data on Eurasian event', 'volume': '63', 'author': 'Basham', 'year': '(1972)', 'journal-title': 'Seism. Series Earth Phys. Branch'} / Seism. Series Earth Phys. Branch / Discrimination between earthquakes and underground explosions employing an improved Ms scale: supplementary magnitude data on Eurasian event by Basham ((1972))
10.1785/BSSA0630010105 / Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. / Seismic magnitudes of underground nuclear explosions by Basham ((1973))
{'key': '2021092015570673000_BIB6', 'article-title': 'Long period signal processing results for LASA', 'author': 'Capon', 'year': '(1969)', 'journal-title': 'Tech. Note 1967-50'} / Tech. Note 1967-50 / Long period signal processing results for LASA by Capon ((1969))
10.1785/BSSA0600051521 / Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. / Event identification for Test Ban Control by Ericsson ((1970))
Ericsson U. (1971). Event identification by m(M) observations from networksFOA Rept. C 4480-A1, Research Institute of National Defence, Stockholm.
10.1029/JB076i032p08042 / J. Geophys. Res. / Discrimination between small-magnitude earthquakes and explosions by Evernden ((1971))
{'key': '2021092015570673000_BIB10', 'volume-title': 'Formeln und Tabellen der Mathematischen Statistik', 'author': 'Graf', 'year': '(1966)', 'edition': '2nd ed.'} / Formeln und Tabellen der Mathematischen Statistik by Graf ((1966))
{'key': '2021092015570673000_BIB11', 'volume-title': 'The Advanced Theory of Statistics', 'author': 'Kendall', 'year': '(1963)', 'edition': '2nd ed.'} / The Advanced Theory of Statistics by Kendall ((1963))
10.1126/science.156.3778.1098 / Science / Excitation of surface waves by events in southern Algeria by Liebermann ((1967))
10.1029/JB074i006p01575 / J. Geophys. Res. / Relative excitation of surface waves by earthquakes and underground explosions by Liebermann ((1969))
10.1029/JZ071i018p04333 / J. Geophys. Res. / Excitation of surface waves by the underground nuclear explosion LONG SHOT by Liebermann ((1966))
10.1111/j.1365-246X.1972.tb06141.x / Geophys. J. / Discrimination between earthquakes and underground explosions employing an improved Ms scale by Marshall ((1972))
10.1029/JB076i032p08003 / J. Geophys. Res. / Excitation of seismic surface waves with periods of 15 to 70 seconds for earthquakes and underground explosions by Savino ((1971))
{'key': '2021092015570673000_BIB17', 'volume-title': 'Seismic methods for monitoring underground explosions', 'author': 'SIPRI', 'year': '(1969)'} / Seismic methods for monitoring underground explosions by SIPRI ((1969))
10.1214/aoms/1177731868 / Ann. Math. Stat. / The fitting of straight lines if both variables are subject to error by Wald ((1940))
{'key': '2021092015570673000_BIB19', 'first-page': '147', 'article-title': 'Short-period spectral discriminant for earthquake-explosion differentiation', 'volume': '37', 'author': 'Weichert', 'year': '(1971)', 'journal-title': 'Zeits. Geophysik'} / Zeits. Geophysik / Short-period spectral discriminant for earthquake-explosion differentiation by Weichert ((1971))
{'key': '2021092015570673000_BIB20', 'article-title': 'An assessment of the present seismological capability for the detection, location and identification of underground nuclear explosions', 'author': 'Whitham', 'year': '(1972)'} / An assessment of the present seismological capability for the detection, location and identification of underground nuclear explosions by Whitham ((1972))

Dates

Type	When
Created	3 years, 11 months ago (Sept. 20, 2021, 12:22 p.m.)
Deposited	3 years, 11 months ago (Sept. 20, 2021, 12:22 p.m.)
Indexed	1 year, 6 months ago (Feb. 12, 2024, 12:29 p.m.)
Issued	52 years, 2 months ago (June 1, 1973)
Published	52 years, 2 months ago (June 1, 1973)
Published Online	52 years, 2 months ago (June 1, 1973)
Published Print	52 years, 2 months ago (June 1, 1973)

Funders 0

None

BibTeX

@article{Weichert_1973, title={Deterrence and false alarms in seismic discrimination}, volume={63}, ISSN={0037-1106}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0630031119}, DOI={10.1785/bssa0630031119}, number={3}, journal={Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, publisher={Seismological Society of America (SSA)}, author={Weichert, D. H. and Basham, P. W.}, year={1973}, month=jun, pages={1119–1132} }

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