Abstract
Results from a global climate model including an interactive parameterization of stratospheric chemistry show how upper stratospheric ozone changes may amplify observed, 11-year solar cycle irradiance changes to affect climate. In the model, circulation changes initially induced in the stratosphere subsequently penetrate into the troposphere, demonstrating the importance of the dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. The model reproduces many observed 11-year oscillations, including the relatively long record of geopotential height variations; hence, it implies that these oscillations are likely driven, at least in part, by solar variability.
References
37
Referenced
449
-
Friis-Christensen E., Svensmark H., Adv. Space Res. 20, 913 (1997).
(
10.1016/S0273-1177(97)00499-7
) / Adv. Space Res. by Friis-Christensen E. (1997) -
Labitzke K., van Loon H., Space Sci. Rev. 80, 393 (1997).
(
10.1023/A:1004907126955
) / Space Sci. Rev. by Labitzke K. (1997) -
Salby M., Shea D. J., J. Geophys. Res. 96, 22579 (1991);
(
10.1029/91JD02530
) / J. Geophys. Res. by Salby M. (1991) - Solomon S., et al., ibid. 101, 6713 (1996). / ibid. by Solomon S. (1996)
-
Mehta V. M., Delworth T., J. Clim. 8, 172 (1995);
(
10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0172:DVOTTA>2.0.CO;2
) / J. Clim. by Mehta V. M. (1995) - Halliwell G. R., ibid. 10, 2405 (1998). / ibid. by Halliwell G. R. (1998)
-
Geller M. A., Alpert J. C., J. Atmos. Sci. 37, 1197 (1980);
(
10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<1197:PWCBTT>2.0.CO;2
) / J. Atmos. Sci. by Geller M. A. (1980) -
Haigh J. D., J. Atmos. Solar Terr. Phys. 61, 63 (1999);
(
10.1016/S1364-6826(98)00117-5
) / J. Atmos. Solar Terr. Phys. by Haigh J. D. (1999) -
Arnold N. F., Robinson T. R., Ann. Geophys. 16, 69 (1998);
(
10.1007/s00585-997-0069-3
) / Ann. Geophys. by Arnold N. F. (1998) -
; K. Kodera in The Stratosphere and Its Role in the Climate System G. P. Brasseur Ed. (NATO ASI Series I 54 Springer-Verlag Berlin 1997) pp. 83–98.
(
10.1007/978-3-662-03327-2_7
) 10.1126/science.272.5264.981
-
Lean J. L., et al., J. Geophys. Res. 102, 29939 (1997).
(
10.1029/97JD02092
) / J. Geophys. Res. by Lean J. L. (1997) -
Wetherald R. T., Manabe S., J. Atmos. Sci. 32, 2044 (1975);
(
10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<2044:TEOCTS>2.0.CO;2
) / J. Atmos. Sci. by Wetherald R. T. (1975) -
Nesme-Ribes E., et al., J. Geophys. Res. 98, 18923 (1993);
(
10.1029/93JA00305
) / J. Geophys. Res. by Nesme-Ribes E. (1993) 10.1007/s003820050196
-
Kodera K., Yamazaki K., Chiba M., Shibata K., Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 1263 (1990).
(
10.1029/GL017i009p01263
) / Geophys. Res. Lett. by Kodera K. (1990) -
Balachandran N. K., Rind D., J. Clim. 8, 2058 (1995);
(
10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2058:MTEOUV>2.0.CO;2
) / J. Clim. by Balachandran N. K. (1995) - ; D. Rind and N. K. Balachandran ibid. p. 2080.
-
Austin J., Butchart N., Swinbank R. S., Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 123, 1405 (1997);
(
10.1002/qj.49712354113
) / Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. by Austin J. (1997) -
Rind D., Shindell D., Lonergan P., Balachandran N. K., J. Clim. 11, 876 (1998).
(
10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0876:CCATMA>2.0.CO;2
) / J. Clim. by Rind D. (1998) 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0895:CCATMA>2.0.CO;2
-
Naito Y., Hirota I., J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. 75, 925 (1997).
(
10.2151/jmsj1965.75.4_925
) / J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. by Naito Y. (1997) -
Labitzke K., Mon. Weather Rev. 105, 762 (1977);
(
10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105<0762:IVOTWS>2.0.CO;2
) / Mon. Weather Rev. by Labitzke K. (1977) -
Kodera K., Chiba M., Shibata K., Geophys. Res. Lett. 18, 1209 (1991).
(
10.1029/91GL01610
) / Geophys. Res. Lett. by Kodera K. (1991) -
McCormack J. P., Hood L. L., McPeters R. D., Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 2729 (1997).
(
10.1029/97GL02900
) / Geophys. Res. Lett. by McCormack J. P. (1997) -
Hood L. L., J. Geophys. Res. 102, 1355 (1997).
(
10.1029/96JD00210
) / J. Geophys. Res. by Hood L. L. (1997) - Brasseur G., ibid. 98, 23079 (1993); / ibid. by Brasseur G. (1993)
10.1038/370544a0
-
Fleming E. L., et al., J. Atmos. Terr. Phys. 57, 333 (1995).
(
10.1016/0021-9169(94)E0013-D
) / J. Atmos. Terr. Phys. by Fleming E. L. (1995) -
McCormack J. P., Hood L. L., J. Geophys. Res. 101, 20933 (1996).
(
10.1029/96JD01817
) / J. Geophys. Res. by McCormack J. P. (1996) -
Chandra S., et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 2935 (1996).
(
10.1029/96GL02760
) / Geophys. Res. Lett. by Chandra S. (1996) - The vertical shear is important further poleward and at higher levels where wave refraction changes lead to convergence and heating in the upper stratosphere in January and February (Fig. 5).
10.1029/95JD01172
- World Meteorological Organization Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1994 (Rep. 37 Global Ozone Res. and Monit. Proj. Geneva 1994).
- The two analyses are not statistically different at any latitude.
-
Rind D., Balachandran N. K., Suozzo R., J. Clim. 5, 189 (1992).
(
10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0189:CCATMA>2.0.CO;2
) / J. Clim. by Rind D. (1992) - We thank K. Labitzke for providing data and G. A. Schmidt for comments. Supported by NASA's Solar Influence on Global Change Research and Analysis Program NASA's Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Analysis Program NASA's UARS Guest Investigator Program and NSF's Solar Terrestrial Physics Program.
Dates
Type | When |
---|---|
Created | 23 years, 1 month ago (July 27, 2002, 5:49 a.m.) |
Deposited | 1 year, 7 months ago (Jan. 12, 2024, 10:45 p.m.) |
Indexed | 1 day ago (Sept. 3, 2025, 6:17 a.m.) |
Issued | 26 years, 4 months ago (April 9, 1999) |
Published | 26 years, 4 months ago (April 9, 1999) |
Published Print | 26 years, 4 months ago (April 9, 1999) |
@article{Shindell_1999, title={Solar Cycle Variability, Ozone, and Climate}, volume={284}, ISSN={1095-9203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.284.5412.305}, DOI={10.1126/science.284.5412.305}, number={5412}, journal={Science}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Shindell, Drew and Rind, David and Balachandran, Nambeth and Lean, Judith and Lonergan, Patrick}, year={1999}, month=apr, pages={305–308} }