DOI: 10.1126/science.276.5320.1818. Targets for Stabilization of Atmospheric CO <sub>2</sub>

Targets for Stabilization of Atmospheric CO 2

10.1126/science.276.5320.1818

Crossref journal-article

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Science (221)

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published emission trajectories for CO 2 leading to atmospheric equilibrium in the range of 350 to 1000 parts per million by volume (ppmv). This range does not, however, imply that any one concentration is the appropriate value toward which policies influencing worldwide anthropogenic emissions should aim. Scientists must join the debate, despite the difficulty of pinpointing the correct number; otherwise, action may not be taken. Analysis suggests that a value nearer to 350 ppmv should be adopted, until it can be proven that a higher value is safe.

Bibliography

Azar, C., & Rodhe, H. (1997). Targets for Stabilization of Atmospheric CO 2. Science, 276(5320), 1818â1819.

Authors 2

Christian Azar (first)
Henning Rodhe (additional)

References 15 Referenced 101

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (United Nations Climate Change Secretariat Palais des Nations Geneva 1992).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change J. T. Houghton et al. Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge 1996).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS 92 Emission Scenarios J. T. Houghton et al. Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge 1995).
Note however that because aerosols are not well-mixed in the atmosphere it is wrong to think of these as merely offsetting the positive radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases (3).
The IPCC IS 92 scenarios should not be mixed with IPCC's stabilization scenarios (S350 through S1000). The former is a set of emission scenarios for greenhouse gases and aerosols (3) .
T. M. L. Wigley in Climate Change and the Agenda for Research T. Hanisch Ed. (Westview Boulder CO 1994) pp. 193–222.
An interesting study along these lines was recently carried out by J. Alcamo and E. Kreilman [ Global Environ. Change 6 305 (1996)].
Crowley T. J., Kim K.-Y., Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 933 (1995); (10.1029/95GL00799) / Geophys. Res. Lett. by Crowley T. J. (1995)
; see also (2) pp. 173–176.
R. J. Swart and P. Vellinga Clim. Change 18 vii (1991) (10.1007/BF00142501)
F. R. Rijsberman and R. J. Swart Eds. Targets and Indicators of Climatic Change (Stockholm Environment Institute Stockholm 1990).
Hansen J., Sato M., Lucis A., Ruedy R., Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London Ser. B 352, 231 (1997). (10.1098/rstb.1997.0018) / Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London Ser. B by Hansen J. (1997)
10.1038/379240a0
Wigley et al. (11) also argue that reduction deferral is preferable from an economic point of view although this conclusion is controversial. The main reason for the controversy is that the economic models used to support their conclusion are poor in capturing complex and critical factors such as technological change and the inertia of the energy system [see for example M. Grubb Energy Policy 25 159 (1997)]. Grubb also stresses that the uncertainty about the stabilization target is critical for near-term policies.
C.A. acknowledges support from the Swedish Council for Planning and Co-ordination of Research.

Dates

Type	When
Created	23 years ago (July 27, 2002, 5:45 a.m.)
Deposited	1 year, 7 months ago (Jan. 13, 2024, 1:17 a.m.)
Indexed	3 weeks, 5 days ago (July 30, 2025, 10:34 a.m.)
Issued	28 years, 2 months ago (June 20, 1997)
Published	28 years, 2 months ago (June 20, 1997)
Published Print	28 years, 2 months ago (June 20, 1997)

Funders 0

None

BibTeX

@article{Azar_1997, title={Targets for Stabilization of Atmospheric CO 2}, volume={276}, ISSN={1095-9203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.276.5320.1818}, DOI={10.1126/science.276.5320.1818}, number={5320}, journal={Science}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Azar, Christian and Rodhe, Henning}, year={1997}, month=jun, pages={1818–1819} }

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