DOI: 10.1126/science.269.5231.1699. An Improved Procedure for EI Niño Forecasting: Implications for Predictability

An Improved Procedure for EI Niño Forecasting: Implications for Predictability

10.1126/science.269.5231.1699

Crossref journal-article

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Science (221)

Abstract

A coupled ocean-atmosphere data assimilation procedure yields improved forecasts of El Niño for the 1980s compared with previous forecasting procedures. As in earlier forecasts with the same model, no oceanic data were used, and only wind information was assimilated. The improvement is attributed to the explicit consideration of air-sea interaction in the initialization. These results suggest that El Niño is more predictable than previously estimated, but that predictability may vary on decadal or longer time scales. This procedure also eliminates the well-known spring barrier to El Niño prediction, which implies that it may not be intrinsic to the real climate system.

Bibliography

Chen, D., Zebiak, S. E., Busalacchi, A. J., & Cane, M. A. (1995). An Improved Procedure for EI NiÃ±o Forecasting: Implications for Predictability. Science, 269(5231), 1699â1702.

Authors 4

Dake Chen (first)
Stephen E. Zebiak (additional)
Antonio J. Busalacchi (additional)
Mark A. Cane (additional)

References 22 Referenced 242

BARNETT, T.P., ENSO AND ENSO-RELATED PREDICTABILITY .1. PREDICTION OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE WITH A HYBRID COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 6: 1545 (1993). (10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1545:EAERPP>2.0.CO;2) / JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (1993)
BARNETT, T.P., ON THE PREDICTION OF THE EL-NINO OF 1986-1987, SCIENCE 241: 192 (1988). (10.1126/science.241.4862.192) / SCIENCE (1988)
BARNSTON, A.G., LONG-LEAD SEASONAL FORECASTS - WHERE DO WE STAND, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 75: 2097 (1994). (10.1175/1520-0477(1994)075<2097:LLSFDW>2.0.CO;2) / BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (1994)
BLUMENTHAL, M.B., PREDICTABILITY OF A COUPLED OCEAN ATMOSPHERE MODEL, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 4: 766 (1991). (10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0766:POACOM>2.0.CO;2) / JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (1991)
10.1038/321827a0
FARRELL, B.F., OPTIMAL EXCITATION OF BAROCLINIC WAVES, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 46: 1193 (1989). (10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<1193:OEOBW>2.0.CO;2) / JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (1989)
Fischer, M., WMO/TD 651 301 (1995). / WMO/TD (1995)
GOLDENBERG, S.B., TIME AND SPACE VARIABILITY OF TROPICAL PACIFIC WIND STRESS, MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 109: 1190 (1981). (10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<1190:TASVOT>2.0.CO;2) / MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW (1981)
GOSWAMI, B.N., PREDICTABILITY OF A COUPLED OCEAN ATMOSPHERE MODEL, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 4: 3 (1991). (10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0003:POACOA>2.0.CO;2) / JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (1991)
Graham, N. E., TOGA Notes 7: 11 (1992). / TOGA Notes (1992)
JI, M, AN OCEAN ANALYSIS SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL CLIMATE STUDIES, MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 123: 460 (1995). (10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<0460:AOASFS>2.0.CO;2) / MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW (1995)
LATIF, M, CLIM DYNAM 9: 167 (1993). / CLIM DYNAM (1993)
LORENZ, E.N., ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENTS WITH A LARGE NUMERICAL-MODEL, TELLUS 34: 505 (1982). (10.3402/tellusa.v34i6.10836) / TELLUS (1982)
MUNNICH, M, A STUDY OF SELF-EXCITED OSCILLATIONS OF THE TROPICAL OCEAN ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM .2. NONLINEAR CASES, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 48: 1238 (1991). (10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<1238:ASOSEO>2.0.CO;2) / JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (1991)
Rosati, A., Monthly Weather Review 123: 2206 (1995). (10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2206:DAPFAO>2.0.CO;2) / Monthly Weather Review (1995)
10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<0549:VIACOM>2.0.CO;2
10.1126/science.264.5155.72
WEBSTER, P.J., MONSOON AND ENSO - SELECTIVELY INTERACTIVE SYSTEMS, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 118: 877 (1992). (10.1002/qj.49711850705) / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (1992)
WRIGHT, P.B., THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION - AN OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE FEEDBACK-SYSTEM, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 66: 398 (1985). (10.1175/1520-0477(1985)066<0398:TSOAOA>2.0.CO;2) / BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (1985)
XUE, Y, TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY 46: 512 (1994). (10.3402/tellusa.v46i4.15641) / TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY (1994)
ZEBIAK, S.E., ON THE 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION AND THE PREDICTION OF ELNINO, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 2: 1381 (1989). (10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<1381:OTDOAT>2.0.CO;2) / JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (1989)
10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<2262:AMENO>2.0.CO;2

Dates

Type	When
Created	18 years, 10 months ago (Oct. 27, 2006, 2:19 p.m.)
Deposited	1 year, 7 months ago (Jan. 12, 2024, 6:06 p.m.)
Indexed	1 month, 2 weeks ago (July 12, 2025, 6:59 p.m.)
Issued	29 years, 11 months ago (Sept. 22, 1995)
Published	29 years, 11 months ago (Sept. 22, 1995)
Published Print	29 years, 11 months ago (Sept. 22, 1995)

Funders 0

None

BibTeX

@article{Chen_1995, title={An Improved Procedure for EI Niño Forecasting: Implications for Predictability}, volume={269}, ISSN={1095-9203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.269.5231.1699}, DOI={10.1126/science.269.5231.1699}, number={5231}, journal={Science}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Chen, Dake and Zebiak, Stephen E. and Busalacchi, Antonio J. and Cane, Mark A.}, year={1995}, month=sep, pages={1699–1702} }

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