DOI: 10.1126/science.243.4895.1173. Earthquake Hazard After a Mainshock in California

Earthquake Hazard After a Mainshock in California

10.1126/science.243.4895.1173

Crossref journal-article

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Science (221)

Abstract

After a strong earthquake, the possibility of the occurrence of either significant aftershocks or an even stronger mainshock is a continuing hazard that threatens the resumption of critical services and reoccupation of essential but partially damaged structures. A stochastic parametric model allows determination of probabilities for aftershocks and larger mainshocks during intervals following the mainshock. The probabilities depend strongly on the model parameters, which are estimated with Bayesian statistics from both the ongoing aftershock sequence and from a suite of historic California aftershock sequences. Probabilities for damaging aftershocks and greater mainshocks are typically well-constrained after the first day of the sequence, with accuracy increasing with time.

Bibliography

Reasenberg, P. A., & Jones, L. M. (1989). Earthquake Hazard After a Mainshock in California. Science, 243(4895), 1173â1176.

Authors 2

Paul A. Reasenberg (first)
Lucile M. Jones (additional)

References 21 Referenced 495

BENNETT J CALIFORNIA DIVISION OF MINES AND GEOLOGY SPECIAL PUBLICATION 66 (1983).
Bowker A. H. Engineering Statistics 2 (1972).
DARRAGH, R.B., BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOGRAPHIC STATIONS 55: 1 (1985). / BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOGRAPHIC STATIONS (1985)
ELLSWORTH W U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROFESSIONAL PAPER 1487 (1988).
GIVEN D.D. U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OPEN-FILE REPORT 87-488 (1987).
Goltz J. The Parkfield and San Diego Earthquake Predictions: A Chronology Report of the Southern Califomia Earthquake Preparedness Project (1985).
HAUKSSON, E, THE 1987 WHITTIER NARROWS EARTHQUAKE IN THE LOS-ANGELES METROPOLITAN AREA, CALIFORNIA, SCIENCE 239: 1409 (1988). (10.1126/science.239.4846.1409) / SCIENCE (1988)
Hogg R. V. Introduction to Mathematical Statistics (1978).
JONES, L.M., FORESHOCKS AND TIME-DEPENDENT EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SOUTHERN-CALIFORNIA, BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 75: 1669 (1985). / BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA (1985)
JONES, L.M., EOS, TRANSACTIONS AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION 69: 1305 (1988). / EOS, TRANSACTIONS AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION (1988)
KAGAN, Y.Y., STOCHASTIC SYNTHESIS OF EARTHQUAKE CATALOGS, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH 86: 2853 (1981). (10.1029/JB086iB04p02853) / JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH (1981)
KIRKMAN-REYNOLDS S.L. U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OPEN-FILE REPORT 86-157 (1987).
OGATA, Y, STATISTICAL-MODELS FOR EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCES AND RESIDUAL ANALYSIS FOR POINT-PROCESSES, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION 83: 9 (1988). (10.1080/01621459.1988.10478560) / JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION (1988)
OGATA, Y, ESTIMATION OF THE PARAMETERS IN THE MODIFIED OMORI FORMULA FOR AFTERSHOCK FREQUENCIES BY THE MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD PROCEDURE, JOURNAL OF PHYSICS OF THE EARTH 31: 115 (1983). (10.4294/jpe1952.31.115) / JOURNAL OF PHYSICS OF THE EARTH (1983)
REASENBERG, P, 2ND-ORDER MOMENT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SEISMICITY, 1969-1982, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH AND PLANETS 90: 5479 (1985). (10.1029/JB090iB07p05479) / JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH AND PLANETS (1985)
UTSU, T, GEOPHYSICAL MAGAZINE 30: 521 (1961). / GEOPHYSICAL MAGAZINE (1961)
UTSU T JOURNAL OF THE FACULTY OF SCIENCE HOKKAIDO UNIVERSITY. SERIES VII 3 (1969).
UTSU T JOURNAL OF THE FACULTY OF SCIENCE HOKKAIDO UNIVERSITY. SERIES VII 3 (1970).
UTSU T JOURNAL OF THE FACULTY OF SCIENCE HOKKAIDO UNIVERSITY. SERIES VII 3 (1971).
UTSU T JOURNAL OF THE FACULTY OF SCIENCE HOKKAIDO UNIVERSITY. SERIES VII 4 (1972).
UTSU, T, JOURNAL OF PHYSICS OF THE EARTH 22: 71 (1974). (10.4294/jpe1952.22.71) / JOURNAL OF PHYSICS OF THE EARTH (1974)

Dates

Type	When
Created	18 years, 10 months ago (Oct. 5, 2006, 5:21 p.m.)
Deposited	1 year, 7 months ago (Jan. 12, 2024, 10:10 a.m.)
Indexed	47 minutes ago (Aug. 28, 2025, 3:22 p.m.)
Issued	36 years, 5 months ago (March 3, 1989)
Published	36 years, 5 months ago (March 3, 1989)
Published Print	36 years, 5 months ago (March 3, 1989)

Funders 0

None

BibTeX

@article{Reasenberg_1989, title={Earthquake Hazard After a Mainshock in California}, volume={243}, ISSN={1095-9203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.243.4895.1173}, DOI={10.1126/science.243.4895.1173}, number={4895}, journal={Science}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Reasenberg, Paul A. and Jones, Lucile M.}, year={1989}, month=mar, pages={1173–1176} }

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