DOI: 10.1126/science.180.4086.632. Earthquake Prediction: Variation of Seismic Velocities before the San Francisco Earthquake

Earthquake Prediction: Variation of Seismic Velocities before the San Francisco Earthquake

10.1126/science.180.4086.632

Crossref journal-article

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Science (221)

Abstract

A large precursory change in seismic body-wave velocities occurred before the earthquake in San Fernando, California. The discovery that this change is mainly in the P -wave velocity clearly relates the effect to the phenomenon of dilatancy in fluid-filled rocks. This interpretation is supported by the time-volume relation obtained by combining the present data with the data from previous studies. The duration of the precursor period is proportional to the square of an effective fault dimension, which indicates that a diffusive or fluid-flow phenomenon controls the time interval between the initiation of dilatancy and the return to a fully saturated condition which is required for rupture.

Bibliography

Whitcomb, J. H., Garmany, J. D., & Anderson, D. L. (1973). Earthquake Prediction: Variation of Seismic Velocities before the San Francisco Earthquake. Science, 180(4086), 632â635.

Authors 3

James H. Whitcomb (first)
Jan D. Garmany (additional)
Don L. Anderson (additional)

References 14 Referenced 287

AGGARWAL, Y.P., PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES - PREMONITORY CHANGES IN SEISMIC VELOCITIES PRIOR TO EARTHQUAKES IN BLUE MOUNTAIN LAKE (BML) AREA NY, TRANSACTIONS-AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION 53: 1041 (1972). / TRANSACTIONS-AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION (1972)
AGGARWAL, Y.P., PREMONITORY CHANGES IN SEISMIC VELOCITIES AND PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES, NATURE 241: 101 (1973). (10.1038/241101a0) / NATURE (1973)
BRACE, W.F., A TEST OF LAW OF EFFECTIVE STRESS FOR CRYSTALLINE ROCKS OF LOW POROSITY, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ROCK MECHANICS AND MINING SCIENCES 5: 415 (1968). (10.1016/0148-9062(68)90045-4) / INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ROCK MECHANICS AND MINING SCIENCES (1968)
BRACE, W.F., DILATANCY IN FRACTURE OF CRYSTALLINE ROCKS, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH 71: 3939 (1966). (10.1029/JZ071i016p03939) / JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH (1966)
FRANK, F.C., ON DILATANCY IN RELATION TO SEISMIC SOURCES, REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS 3: 485 (1965). (10.1029/RG003i004p00485) / REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS (1965)
NERESOV I.L. PHYSICAL BASIS FORES (1969).
NUR, A, DILATANCY, PORE FLUIDS, AND PREMONITORY VARIATIONS OF TS-TP TRAVEL TIMES, BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 62: 1217 (1972). (10.1785/BSSA0620051217) / BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA (1972)
NUR, A, EFFECT OF SATURATION ON VELOCITY IN LOW POROSITY ROCKS, EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS 7: 183 (1969). (10.1016/0012-821X(69)90035-1) / EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS (1969)
NUR, A, DILATANCY, PORE FLUIDS AND VARIATIONS OF TS-TP RATIOS, TRANSACTIONS-AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION 53: 1115 (1972). / TRANSACTIONS-AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION (1972)
SAVARENSKY, E.F., ON PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES, TECTONOPHYSICS 6: 17 (1968). (10.1016/0040-1951(68)90023-1) / TECTONOPHYSICS (1968)
SEMENOV, A.N., IZV ACAD SCI USSR PH 4: 245 (1969). / IZV ACAD SCI USSR PH (1969)
TSUBOKAWA, I, JOURNAL OF THE GEODETIC SOCIETY OF JAPAN 15: 75 (1969). / JOURNAL OF THE GEODETIC SOCIETY OF JAPAN (1969)
10.1029/RG011i003p00693
WYSS, M, SEISMIC MOMENT STRESS AND SOURCE DIMENSIONS FOR EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA-NEVADA REGION, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH 73: 4681 (1968). (10.1029/JB073i014p04681) / JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH (1968)

Dates

Type	When
Created	18 years, 10 months ago (Oct. 5, 2006, 10:05 a.m.)
Deposited	1 year, 7 months ago (Jan. 11, 2024, 4:08 p.m.)
Indexed	9 months ago (Nov. 19, 2024, 11:02 a.m.)
Issued	52 years, 3 months ago (May 11, 1973)
Published	52 years, 3 months ago (May 11, 1973)
Published Print	52 years, 3 months ago (May 11, 1973)

Funders 0

None

BibTeX

@article{Whitcomb_1973, title={Earthquake Prediction: Variation of Seismic Velocities before the San Francisco Earthquake}, volume={180}, ISSN={1095-9203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.180.4086.632}, DOI={10.1126/science.180.4086.632}, number={4086}, journal={Science}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Whitcomb, James H. and Garmany, Jan D. and Anderson, Don L.}, year={1973}, month=may, pages={632–635} }

JSON

{
  "indexed": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2024,
        11,
        19
      ]
    ],
    "date-time": "2024-11-19T16:02:18Z",
    "timestamp": 1732032138226
  },
  "reference-count": 14,
  "publisher": "American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)",
  "issue": "4086",
  "content-domain": {
    "domain": [],
    "crossmark-restriction": false
  },
  "published-print": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        1973,
        5,
        11
      ]
    ]
  },
  "abstract": "<jats:p>\n            A large precursory change in seismic body-wave velocities occurred before the earthquake in San Fernando, California. The discovery that this change is mainly in the\n            <jats:italic>P</jats:italic>\n            -wave velocity clearly relates the effect to the phenomenon of dilatancy in fluid-filled rocks. This interpretation is supported by the time-volume relation obtained by combining the present data with the data from previous studies. The duration of the precursor period is proportional to the square of an effective fault dimension, which indicates that a diffusive or fluid-flow phenomenon controls the time interval between the initiation of dilatancy and the return to a fully saturated condition which is required for rupture.\n          </jats:p>",
  "DOI": "10.1126/science.180.4086.632",
  "type": "journal-article",
  "created": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2006,
        10,
        5
      ]
    ],
    "date-time": "2006-10-05T14:05:45Z",
    "timestamp": 1160057145000
  },
  "page": "632-635",
  "source": "Crossref",
  "is-referenced-by-count": 287,
  "title": "Earthquake Prediction: Variation of Seismic Velocities before the San Francisco Earthquake",
  "prefix": "10.1126",
  "volume": "180",
  "author": [
    {
      "given": "James H.",
      "family": "Whitcomb",
      "sequence": "first",
      "affiliation": [
        {
          "name": "Seismological Laboratory, Bin 2, Arroyo Annex, Pasadena, California 91109"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "given": "Jan D.",
      "family": "Garmany",
      "sequence": "additional",
      "affiliation": [
        {
          "name": "Seismological Laboratory, Bin 2, Arroyo Annex, Pasadena, California 91109"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "given": "Don L.",
      "family": "Anderson",
      "sequence": "additional",
      "affiliation": [
        {
          "name": "Seismological Laboratory, Bin 2, Arroyo Annex, Pasadena, California 91109"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "member": "221",
  "reference": [
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_1_1",
      "first-page": "1041",
      "volume": "53",
      "year": "1972",
      "unstructured": "AGGARWAL, Y.P., PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES - PREMONITORY CHANGES IN SEISMIC VELOCITIES PRIOR TO EARTHQUAKES IN BLUE MOUNTAIN LAKE (BML) AREA NY, TRANSACTIONS-AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION 53: 1041 (1972).",
      "journal-title": "TRANSACTIONS-AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_2_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "crossref",
      "first-page": "101",
      "DOI": "10.1038/241101a0",
      "volume": "241",
      "year": "1973",
      "unstructured": "AGGARWAL, Y.P., PREMONITORY CHANGES IN SEISMIC VELOCITIES AND PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES, NATURE 241: 101 (1973).",
      "journal-title": "NATURE"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_3_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "crossref",
      "first-page": "415",
      "DOI": "10.1016/0148-9062(68)90045-4",
      "volume": "5",
      "year": "1968",
      "unstructured": "BRACE, W.F., A TEST OF LAW OF EFFECTIVE STRESS FOR CRYSTALLINE ROCKS OF LOW POROSITY, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ROCK MECHANICS AND MINING SCIENCES 5: 415 (1968).",
      "journal-title": "INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ROCK MECHANICS AND MINING SCIENCES"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_4_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "crossref",
      "first-page": "3939",
      "DOI": "10.1029/JZ071i016p03939",
      "volume": "71",
      "year": "1966",
      "unstructured": "BRACE, W.F., DILATANCY IN FRACTURE OF CRYSTALLINE ROCKS, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH 71: 3939 (1966).",
      "journal-title": "JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_5_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "crossref",
      "first-page": "485",
      "DOI": "10.1029/RG003i004p00485",
      "volume": "3",
      "year": "1965",
      "unstructured": "FRANK, F.C., ON DILATANCY IN RELATION TO SEISMIC SOURCES, REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS 3: 485 (1965).",
      "journal-title": "REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_6_1",
      "unstructured": "NERESOV I.L. PHYSICAL BASIS FORES (1969)."
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_7_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "crossref",
      "first-page": "1217",
      "DOI": "10.1785/BSSA0620051217",
      "volume": "62",
      "year": "1972",
      "unstructured": "NUR, A, DILATANCY, PORE FLUIDS, AND PREMONITORY VARIATIONS OF TS-TP TRAVEL TIMES, BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 62: 1217 (1972).",
      "journal-title": "BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_8_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "crossref",
      "first-page": "183",
      "DOI": "10.1016/0012-821X(69)90035-1",
      "volume": "7",
      "year": "1969",
      "unstructured": "NUR, A, EFFECT OF SATURATION ON VELOCITY IN LOW POROSITY ROCKS, EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS 7: 183 (1969).",
      "journal-title": "EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_9_1",
      "first-page": "1115",
      "volume": "53",
      "year": "1972",
      "unstructured": "NUR, A, DILATANCY, PORE FLUIDS AND VARIATIONS OF TS-TP RATIOS, TRANSACTIONS-AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION 53: 1115 (1972).",
      "journal-title": "TRANSACTIONS-AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_10_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "crossref",
      "first-page": "17",
      "DOI": "10.1016/0040-1951(68)90023-1",
      "volume": "6",
      "year": "1968",
      "unstructured": "SAVARENSKY, E.F., ON PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES, TECTONOPHYSICS 6: 17 (1968).",
      "journal-title": "TECTONOPHYSICS"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_11_1",
      "first-page": "245",
      "volume": "4",
      "year": "1969",
      "unstructured": "SEMENOV, A.N., IZV ACAD SCI USSR PH 4: 245 (1969).",
      "journal-title": "IZV ACAD SCI USSR PH"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_12_1",
      "first-page": "75",
      "volume": "15",
      "year": "1969",
      "unstructured": "TSUBOKAWA, I, JOURNAL OF THE GEODETIC SOCIETY OF JAPAN 15: 75 (1969).",
      "journal-title": "JOURNAL OF THE GEODETIC SOCIETY OF JAPAN"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_13_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/RG011i003p00693"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_1_14_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "crossref",
      "first-page": "4681",
      "DOI": "10.1029/JB073i014p04681",
      "volume": "73",
      "year": "1968",
      "unstructured": "WYSS, M, SEISMIC MOMENT STRESS AND SOURCE DIMENSIONS FOR EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA-NEVADA REGION, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH 73: 4681 (1968).",
      "journal-title": "JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH"
    }
  ],
  "container-title": "Science",
  "original-title": [],
  "language": "en",
  "link": [
    {
      "URL": "https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.180.4086.632",
      "content-type": "unspecified",
      "content-version": "vor",
      "intended-application": "similarity-checking"
    }
  ],
  "deposited": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2024,
        1,
        11
      ]
    ],
    "date-time": "2024-01-11T21:08:03Z",
    "timestamp": 1705007283000
  },
  "score": 1,
  "resource": {
    "primary": {
      "URL": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.180.4086.632"
    }
  },
  "subtitle": [],
  "short-title": [],
  "issued": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        1973,
        5,
        11
      ]
    ]
  },
  "references-count": 14,
  "journal-issue": {
    "issue": "4086",
    "published-print": {
      "date-parts": [
        [
          1973,
          5,
          11
        ]
      ]
    }
  },
  "alternative-id": [
    "10.1126/science.180.4086.632"
  ],
  "URL": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.180.4086.632",
  "relation": {},
  "ISSN": [
    "0036-8075",
    "1095-9203"
  ],
  "subject": [],
  "container-title-short": "Science",
  "published": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        1973,
        5,
        11
      ]
    ]
  }
}