DOI: 10.1126/science.1151861. Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change

Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change

10.1126/science.1151861

Crossref journal-article

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Science (221)

Abstract

Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.

Bibliography

Searchinger, T., Heimlich, R., Houghton, R. A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D., & Yu, T.-H. (2008). Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change. Science, 319(5867), 1238â1240.

Authors 9

Timothy Searchinger (first)
Ralph Heimlich (additional)
R. A. Houghton (additional)
Fengxia Dong (additional)
Amani Elobeid (additional)
Jacinto Fabiosa (additional)
Simla Tokgoz (additional)
Dermot Hayes (additional)
Tun-Hsiang Yu (additional)

References 30 Referenced 3,435

Materials and methods are available at Science Online.
10.1126/science.1121416
M. Wang C. Saricks D. Santini “Effects of fuel ethanol use on fuel-cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions” (Center for Transportation Research Energy Systems Division Argonne National Laboratory Argonne IL 1999). (10.2172/4742)
M. Wang paper presented at the 15th International Symposium on Alcohol Fuels San Diego CA 26 to 28September2005.
Argonne National Laboratory “Greenhouse gases regulated emissions and energy use in transportation (GREET) computer model” (2007) www.transportation.anl.gov/software/GREET/publications.html.
I. Macedo M. R. Lima V. Leal J. E. Azevedo Ramos da Silva “Assessment of greenhouse gas emissions in the production and use of fuel ethanol in Brazil ” (Government of the State of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil 2004).
Commission of the European Communities “Biofuels progress report: Report on the progress made in the use of biofuels and other renewable fuels in the member states of the European Union” [COM(2006) 845 final Brussels 2006].
10.1073/pnas.0606377103
Iowa Corn Growers Association “Uses for corn fact sheet ” www.iowacorn.org/cornuse/cornuse_3.html.
M. Deluchi “A multi-country analysis of lifecycle emissions from transportation fuels and motor vehicles” (UCD-ITS-RR-05-10 University of California at Davis Davis CA 2005).
S. Tokgozet al. “Emerging biofuels outlook of effects on U.S. grain oilseed and livestock markets” (Staff Report 0-7-SR 101 Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University Ames IA 2007).
S. Tokgozet al “Data files for revised 2015/16 baseline and scenario without E-85 constraint” (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University Ames IA 2007)
10.1046/j.1354-1013.2002.00486.x
10.1046/j.1354-1013.2001.00459.x
IPCC “Climate change 2001: The scientific basis contribution of working group 1 to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge 2001)
Unlike nearly all other studies GREET incorporates an estimate of emissions from agricultural conversion in its “making feedstock” calculations for corn ethanol at an extremely modest 0.82 g MJ –1 for reasons discussed in ( 1 ). We deleted that emission from the making feedstock estimate in Table 1 to substitute our own estimate in the column marked land use change. Table 1 retains a GREET-calculated credit for biomass in “making feedstock” to reflect the increased carbon sequestration in soils from growing switchgrass instead of annual crops.
IPCC “Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers ” www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf.
The elasticity for the aggregate demand for grains is lower than the demand elasticities for individual grains. Demand for individual grains reflects the ability of consumers to substitute other grains when prices rise whereas the aggregate demand for grains declines only to the extent that consumers reduce their demand for total food and feed. The amount of replacement cropland depends primarily on reduced demand for all grains.
R. D. Schnepf E. Dohlman C. Bolling “Agriculture in Brazil and Argentina: Developments and prospects for major field crops” (WRS-01-03 Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Washington DC 2001).
M. J. Shean “Brazil: Future agricultural expansion potential underrated” (Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Washington DC 2003)
J. Bruinsma Ed. World Agriculture: Toward 2015/30 an FAO Perspective [Food and Agricultural Organization United Nations (UN) Rome 2003].
M. Johanns Transcript of remarks at Advancing Renewable Energy Conference U.S. Department of Agriculture St. Louis MO 11October2007.
10.1126/science.1141361
H. Steinfeldet al. Livestock's Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Options (Food and Agricultural Organization UN Rome 2006)
10.1126/science.1057544
R. D. Perlacket al. “Biomass as a feedstock for a bioenergy and bioproducts industry: The technical feasibility of a billion-ton annual supply” (Tech. Rep. ORNL/TM 2006/66 Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN 2005) (10.2172/885984)
10.1126/science.1133306
Table 1 is calculated with GREET 1.7(4) using default assumptions for the 2015 scenario and as described in ( 16 ). Gasoline is a combination of conventional and reformulated gasoline. Ethanol rows are based on E-85 and adjusted to isolate effects of ethanol by proportionately removing emissions of gasoline. Land-use change emissions are amortized over 30 years and for biomass assume use of U.S. corn fields of average yield to produce switchgrass at 18 metric tons ha –1 ( 26 ) with no feed by-product. Emissions from burning ethanol are slightly higher than feedstock uptake credit because some carbon is emitted as more potent GHGs than CO 2 . By GREET estimates 3.04 MJ provides power for 1 km.
10.1126/science.1152747
We appreciate the valuable suggestions by T. Male and M. Delucchi. This material is based in part upon work supported by NASA under grant number NNX06AF15G issued through the Terrestrial Ecology Program and by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.

Dates

Type	When
Created	17 years, 6 months ago (Feb. 7, 2008, 9:36 p.m.)
Deposited	1 year, 7 months ago (Jan. 10, 2024, 4:46 a.m.)
Indexed	46 minutes ago (Aug. 29, 2025, 10:50 a.m.)
Issued	17 years, 6 months ago (Feb. 29, 2008)
Published	17 years, 6 months ago (Feb. 29, 2008)
Published Print	17 years, 6 months ago (Feb. 29, 2008)

Funders 0

None

BibTeX

@article{Searchinger_2008, title={Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change}, volume={319}, ISSN={1095-9203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1151861}, DOI={10.1126/science.1151861}, number={5867}, journal={Science}, publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, author={Searchinger, Timothy and Heimlich, Ralph and Houghton, R. A. and Dong, Fengxia and Elobeid, Amani and Fabiosa, Jacinto and Tokgoz, Simla and Hayes, Dermot and Yu, Tun-Hsiang}, year={2008}, month=feb, pages={1238–1240} }

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