DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2003.1427. Contrasting simulated past and future responses of the Amazonian forest to atmospheric change

Contrasting simulated past and future responses of the Amazonian forest to atmospheric change

10.1098/rstb.2003.1427

Crossref journal-article

The Royal Society

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences (175)

Abstract

Modelling simulations of palaeoclimate and past vegetation form and function can contribute to global change research by constraining predictions of potential earth system responses to future warming, and by providing useful insights into the ecophysiological tolerances and threshold responses of plants to varying degrees of atmospheric change. We contrasted HadCM3LC simulations of Amazonian forest at the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kyr ago) and a Younger Dryas–like period (13–12 kyr ago) with predicted responses of future warming to provide estimates of the climatic limits under which the Amazon forest remains relatively stable. Our simulations indicate that despite lower atmospheric CO2concentrations and increased aridity during the LGM, Amazonia remains mostly forested, and that the cooling climate of the Younger Dryas–like period in fact causes a trend towardincreasedabove–ground carbon balance relative to today. The vegetation feedbacks responsible for maintaining forest integrity in past climates (i.e. decreased evapotranspiration and reduced plant respiration) cannot be maintained into the future. Although elevated atmospheric CO2contributes to a positive enhancement of plant carbon and water balance, decreased stomatal conductance and increased plant and soil respiration cause a positive feedback that amplifies localized drying and climate warming. We speculate that the Amazonian forest is currently near its critical resiliency threshold, and that even minor climate warming may be sufficient to promote deleterious feedbacks on forest integrity.

Bibliography

Cowling, S. A., Betts, R. A., Cox, P. M., Ettwein, V. J., Jones, C. D., Maslin, M. A., & Spall, S. A. (2004). Contrasting simulated past and future responses of the Amazonian forest to atmospheric change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 359(1443), 539â547.

Authors 7

Sharon A. Cowling (first)
Richard A. Betts (additional)
Peter M. Cox (additional)
Virginia J. Ettwein (additional)
Chris D. Jones (additional)
Mark A. Maslin (additional)
Steven A. Spall (additional)

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Dates

Type	When
Created	21 years, 5 months ago (April 5, 2004, 6:19 p.m.)
Deposited	8 months, 3 weeks ago (Dec. 15, 2024, 2:29 p.m.)
Indexed	1 month ago (July 30, 2025, 9:56 a.m.)
Issued	21 years, 5 months ago (March 29, 2004)
Published	21 years, 5 months ago (March 29, 2004)
Published Online	21 years, 5 months ago (March 29, 2004)
Published Print	21 years, 5 months ago (March 29, 2004)

Funders 0

None

BibTeX

@article{Cowling_2004, title={Contrasting simulated past and future responses of the Amazonian forest to atmospheric change}, volume={359}, ISSN={1471-2970}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2003.1427}, DOI={10.1098/rstb.2003.1427}, number={1443}, journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences}, publisher={The Royal Society}, author={Cowling, Sharon A. and Betts, Richard A. and Cox, Peter M. and Ettwein, Virginia J. and Jones, Chris D. and Maslin, Mark A. and Spall, Steven A.}, editor={Malhi, Y. and Phillips, O. L.}, year={2004}, month=mar, pages={539–547} }

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