DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0504755102. Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide

Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide

10.1073/pnas.0504755102

Crossref journal-article

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (341)

Abstract

We developed a highly simplified approach to estimate the contributions of the past and present human generations to the increase of atmospheric CO 2 and associated global average temperature increases. For each human generation of adopted 25-year length, we use simplified emission test cases to estimate the committed warming passed to successive children, grandchildren, and later generations. We estimate that the last and the current generation contributed approximately two thirds of the present-day CO 2 -induced warming. Because of the long time scale required for removal of CO 2 from the atmosphere as well as the time delays characteristic of physical responses of the climate system, global mean temperatures are expected to increase by several tenths of a degree for at least the next 20 years even if CO 2 emissions were immediately cut to zero; that is, there is a commitment to additional CO 2 -induced warming even in the absence of emissions. If the rate of increase of CO 2 emissions were to continue up to 2025 and then were cut to zero, a temperature increase of ≈1.3°C compared to preindustrial conditions would still occur in 2100, whereas a constant-CO 2 -emissions scenario after 2025 would more than double the 2100 warming. These calculations illustrate the manner in which each generation inherits substantial climate change caused by CO 2 emissions that occurred previously, particularly those of their parents, and shows that current CO 2 emissions will contribute significantly to the climate change of future generations.

Bibliography

Friedlingstein, P., & Solomon, S. (2005). Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102(31), 10832â10836.

Authors 2

Pierre Friedlingstein (first)
Susan Solomon (additional)

References 28 Referenced 47

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Dates

Type	When
Created	20 years, 1 month ago (July 21, 2005, 8:25 p.m.)
Deposited	3 years, 4 months ago (April 12, 2022, 2:12 p.m.)
Indexed	2 months ago (July 2, 2025, 3:08 p.m.)
Issued	20 years, 1 month ago (July 21, 2005)
Published	20 years, 1 month ago (July 21, 2005)
Published Online	20 years, 1 month ago (July 21, 2005)
Published Print	20 years, 1 month ago (Aug. 2, 2005)

Funders 0

None

BibTeX

@article{Friedlingstein_2005, title={Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide}, volume={102}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0504755102}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.0504755102}, number={31}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, author={Friedlingstein, Pierre and Solomon, Susan}, year={2005}, month=jul, pages={10832–10836} }

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