DOI: 10.1029/jb083ib08p03940. Preseismic fault slip and earthquake prediction

Preseismic fault slip and earthquake prediction

10.1029/jb083ib08p03940

Crossref journal-article

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth (13)

Abstract

It is proposed that preseismic fault creep may be the underlying process that is responsible for observations of earthquake precursors. The assertion that fault creep precedes earthquakes is supported by evidence from at least some earthquakes and by analogy with detailed laboratory observations. Laboratory observations of stick slip reveal that at least two stages of preseismic slip are an intrinsic part of the process leading to seismic slip on preexisting faults with inhomogeneous stress or strength. During the slowly propagating first stage of creep it is assumed that the length of the creeping fault segment is proportional to the source length of the subsequent earthquake. The data giving the well‐known relationship between precursor time and earthquake magnitude are closely satisfied if the rate of propagation of the first stage of creep is independent of fault length. Long‐term precursors may arise because of stress‐strain variations during the first stage of fault creep. Observations of short‐term precursors immediately prior to earthquakes may be related to the second short‐lived state of preseismic fault slip seen in stick slip experiments.

Bibliography

Dieterich, J. H. (1978). Preseismic fault slip and earthquake prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 83(B8), 3940â3948. Portico.

Authors 1

J. H. Dieterich (first)

References 39 Referenced 176

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{'key': 'e_1_2_1_3_1', 'first-page': '966', 'article-title': 'Pre‐seismic and post‐earthquake surficial displacements', 'volume': '56', 'author': 'Allen C. R.', 'year': '1966', 'journal-title': 'Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.'} / Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer. / Pre‐seismic and post‐earthquake surficial displacements by Allen C. R. (1966)
10.1029/JB080i011p01497
{'key': 'e_1_2_1_5_1', 'first-page': '1', 'volume-title': 'Contributions in Geophysics in Honor of Beno Gutenberg', 'author': 'Bath M.', 'year': '1958'} / Contributions in Geophysics in Honor of Beno Gutenberg by Bath M. (1958)
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{'key': 'e_1_2_1_18_1', 'first-page': '115', 'article-title': 'Earthquake magnitude, earthquake fault and source dimensions', 'volume': '13', 'author': 'Iida K.', 'year': '1965', 'journal-title': 'J. Earth Sci. Nagoya Univ.'} / J. Earth Sci. Nagoya Univ. / Earthquake magnitude, earthquake fault and source dimensions by Iida K. (1965)
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{'key': 'e_1_2_1_26_1', 'first-page': '278', 'article-title': 'Anomalous fault slip rates before and after the April 1961 earthquakes near Hollister, California (abstract)', 'volume': '52', 'author': 'Nason R. D.', 'year': '1971', 'journal-title': 'Eos Trans. AGU'} / Eos Trans. AGU / Anomalous fault slip rates before and after the April 1961 earthquakes near Hollister, California (abstract) by Nason R. D. (1971)
10.1785/BSSA0620051217 / Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer. / Dilatancy, pore fluids, and premonitory variations of ts/tp travel times by Nur A. (1972)
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10.1126/science.181.4102.803
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{'key': 'e_1_2_1_32_1', 'first-page': '400', 'article-title': 'Anomalous tilt before three recent earthquakes', 'volume': '56', 'author': 'Stuart W. D.', 'year': '1975', 'journal-title': 'Eos Trans. AGU'} / Eos Trans. AGU / Anomalous tilt before three recent earthquakes by Stuart W. D. (1975)
10.1029/JB078i035p08547
10.1785/BSSA0480020147 / Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer. / Earthquake energy and ground breakage by Tocher D. (1958)
{'key': 'e_1_2_1_35_1', 'first-page': '396', 'article-title': 'Creep on the San Andreas fault—Creep rate and related measurements at Vineyard, California', 'volume': '50', 'author': 'Tocher D.', 'year': '1960', 'journal-title': 'Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.'} / Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer. / Creep on the San Andreas fault—Creep rate and related measurements at Vineyard, California by Tocher D. (1960)
{'key': 'e_1_2_1_36_1', 'first-page': '75', 'article-title': 'On relation between duration of crustal movement and magnitude of earthquake expected', 'volume': '15', 'author': 'Tsubokawa I.', 'year': '1969', 'journal-title': 'J. Geod. Soc. Jap.'} / J. Geod. Soc. Jap. / On relation between duration of crustal movement and magnitude of earthquake expected by Tsubokawa I. (1969)
{'key': 'e_1_2_1_37_1', 'first-page': '1035', 'article-title': 'Continuum distribution of dislocations on faults with finite friction', 'volume': '54', 'author': 'Weertman J.', 'year': '1964', 'journal-title': 'Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.'} / Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer. / Continuum distribution of dislocations on faults with finite friction by Weertman J. (1964)
10.1126/science.180.4086.632
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Yerkes R. F. R. O.Castle The Parkfield‐Cholame California earthquakes of June‐August 1966: Engineering geology aspects U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof Pap. 579 40–53 1967.

Dates

Type	When
Created	17 years, 6 months ago (Feb. 6, 2008, 2:57 p.m.)
Deposited	1 year, 11 months ago (Sept. 23, 2023, 4:14 a.m.)
Indexed	4 days, 5 hours ago (Aug. 21, 2025, 2:22 p.m.)
Issued	47 years ago (Aug. 10, 1978)
Published	47 years ago (Aug. 10, 1978)
Published Online	12 years, 11 months ago (Sept. 20, 2012)
Published Print	47 years ago (Aug. 10, 1978)

Funders 0

None

BibTeX

@article{Dieterich_1978, title={Preseismic fault slip and earthquake prediction}, volume={83}, ISSN={0148-0227}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/jb083ib08p03940}, DOI={10.1029/jb083ib08p03940}, number={B8}, journal={Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth}, publisher={American Geophysical Union (AGU)}, author={Dieterich, J. H.}, year={1978}, month=aug, pages={3940–3948} }

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