DOI: 10.1029/2011jb009054. Bayesian analysis of the modified Omori law

Bayesian analysis of the modified Omori law

10.1029/2011jb009054

Crossref journal-article

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth (13)

Abstract

In order to examine variations in aftershock decay rate, we propose a Bayesian framework to estimate the {K, c, p}‐values of the modified Omori law (MOL), λ(t) = K(c + t)−p. The Bayesian setting allows not only to produce a point estimator of these three parameters but also to assess their uncertainties and posterior dependencies with respect to the observed aftershock sequences. Using a new parametrization of the MOL, we identify the trade‐off between the c and p‐value estimates and discuss its dependence on the number of aftershocks. Then, we analyze the influence of the catalog completeness interval [tstart, tstop] on the various estimates. To test this Bayesian approach on natural aftershock sequences, we use two independent and non‐overlapping aftershock catalogs of the same earthquakes in Japan. Taking into account the posterior uncertainties, we show that both the handpicked (short times) and the instrumental (long times) catalogs predict the same ranges of parameter values. We therefore conclude that the same MOL may be valid over short and long times.

Bibliography

Holschneider, M., Narteau, C., Shebalin, P., Peng, Z., & Schorlemmer, D. (2012). Bayesian analysis of the modified Omori law. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 117(B6). Portico.

Authors 5

M. Holschneider (first)
C. Narteau (additional)
P. Shebalin (additional)
Z. Peng (additional)
D. Schorlemmer (additional)

References 43 Referenced 50

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{'key': 'e_1_2_6_11_1', 'first-page': '1885', 'article-title': 'The July 1986 Oceanside M\n \n L\n = 5.3 earthquake sequence in the continental borderland, Southern California', 'volume': '78', 'author': 'Hauksson E.', 'year': '1988', 'journal-title': 'Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.'} / Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. / The July 1986 Oceanside M L = 5.3 earthquake sequence in the continental borderland, Southern California by Hauksson E. (1988)
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{'key': 'e_1_2_6_29_1', 'first-page': '111', 'article-title': 'On after‐shocks of earthquakes', 'volume': '7', 'author': 'Omori F.', 'year': '1894', 'journal-title': 'J. Coll. Sci. Imp. Univ. Tokyo'} / J. Coll. Sci. Imp. Univ. Tokyo / On after‐shocks of earthquakes by Omori F. (1894)
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{'key': 'e_1_2_6_35_1', 'first-page': '1117', 'article-title': 'Microfractures, aftershocks, and seismicity', 'volume': '58', 'author': 'Scholz C.', 'year': '1968', 'journal-title': 'Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.'} / Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. / Microfractures, aftershocks, and seismicity by Scholz C. (1968)
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{'issue': '47', 'key': 'e_1_2_6_42_1', 'article-title': 'Anomalous aftershock decay rates in the first hundred seconds revealed from the Hi‐net borehole data', 'volume': '85', 'author': 'Vidale J. E.', 'year': '2004', 'journal-title': 'Eos Trans. AGU'} / Eos Trans. AGU / Anomalous aftershock decay rates in the first hundred seconds revealed from the Hi‐net borehole data by Vidale J. E. (2004)
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Dates

Type	When
Created	13 years, 3 months ago (May 22, 2012, 3:57 a.m.)
Deposited	1 year, 10 months ago (Oct. 18, 2023, 8:54 a.m.)
Indexed	3 days, 1 hour ago (Aug. 21, 2025, 12:30 p.m.)
Issued	13 years, 2 months ago (June 1, 2012)
Published	13 years, 2 months ago (June 1, 2012)
Published Online	13 years, 1 month ago (June 30, 2012)
Published Print	13 years, 2 months ago (June 1, 2012)

Funders 0

None

BibTeX

@article{Holschneider_2012, title={Bayesian analysis of the modified Omori law}, volume={117}, ISSN={0148-0227}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011jb009054}, DOI={10.1029/2011jb009054}, number={B6}, journal={Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth}, publisher={American Geophysical Union (AGU)}, author={Holschneider, M. and Narteau, C. and Shebalin, P. and Peng, Z. and Schorlemmer, D.}, year={2012}, month=jun }

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