DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009170. Direct aerosol forcing: Calculation from observables and sensitivities to inputs

Direct aerosol forcing: Calculation from observables and sensitivities to inputs

10.1029/2007jd009170

Crossref journal-article

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (13)

Abstract

Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF owing to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface is calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. Sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are also calculated for these conditions. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Absolute total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 3.1 W m−2 for the ranges of properties examined here. Relative total uncertainties range from ∼20 to 80% with larger values at higher latitudes, where fluxes are low. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is single scattering albedo; however, decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

Authors 7

Allison McComiskey (first)
Stephen E. Schwartz (additional)
Beat Schmid (additional)
Hong Guan (additional)
Ernie R. Lewis (additional)
Paul Ricchiazzi (additional)
John A. Ogren (additional)

References 44 Referenced 158

10.1029/1999JD900172
10.1126/science.1084777
10.1175/BAMS-86-12-1795
10.5194/acp-6-1657-2006
10.1038/nature04348
10.1029/1999GL900330
10.1029/98JD00997
10.1038/348022a0
10.1034/j.1600-0889.1991.t01-1-00013.x
10.1126/science.255.5043.423
10.1029/95GL00800
10.1016/j.jqsrt.2004.05.058
10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<1135:VOAOPA>2.0.CO;2
10.1029/2000JD900282
{'key': 'e_1_2_8_16_1', 'first-page': '289', 'volume-title': 'Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change', 'author': 'Forster P.', 'year': '2007'} / Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Forster P. (2007)
10.1016/j.solener.2003.08.039
10.1029/2000JD900224
10.1029/2004JD005293
10.1364/AO.33.005118
10.1029/95GL00075
10.1016/S0034-4257(98)00031-5
{'volume-title': 'Climate Change 2001—The Scientific Basis:Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change', 'year': '2001', 'author': 'Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)', 'key': 'e_1_2_8_23_1'} / Climate Change 2001—The Scientific Basis:Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001)
10.1017/CBO9780511546013 / Climate Change 2007—The Physical Science Basis:Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007)
10.1029/2004JD005337
10.1029/97JD01841
{'volume-title': 'Optical Properties of the Atmosphere', 'year': '1972', 'author': 'McClatchey R. A.', 'key': 'e_1_2_8_27_1'} / Optical Properties of the Atmosphere by McClatchey R. A. (1972)
10.1029/2005JD006341
10.1126/science.256.5062.1432
10.1175/1520-0477(1994)075<0375:QAMUOC>2.0.CO;2
{'key': 'e_1_2_8_31_1', 'first-page': '129', 'volume-title': 'Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis—Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change', 'author': 'Penner J. E.', 'year': '2001'} / Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis—Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Penner J. E. (2001)
10.1029/1999JD901042
10.1029/2005JD006812
10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2101:SARATS>2.0.CO;2
10.1029/97JD00112
10.1029/2006JD007606
10.1029/2005JD005837
Schmid B. et al. (2007) The sensitivity of shortwave radiative forcing and heating rates to the aerosol vertical profile paper presented atSeventeenth ARM Science Team Meeting Atmos. Radiat. Manage. Program Monterey Calif. 26–30 March.
10.5194/acp-6-5225-2006
10.1080/10473289.2004.10471006
10.1364/AO.27.002502
10.1175/1520-0426(1997)014<0577:AODOOH>2.0.CO;2
10.1127/0941-2948/2001/0010-0045
10.1175/1520-0469(1976)033<2440:TBFITS>2.0.CO;2
10.5194/acp-6-613-2006

Dates

Type	When
Created	17 years, 3 months ago (May 6, 2008, 4:03 p.m.)
Deposited	1 year, 10 months ago (Oct. 12, 2023, 8:14 p.m.)
Indexed	4 weeks ago (July 30, 2025, 6:27 a.m.)
Issued	17 years, 3 months ago (May 7, 2008)
Published	17 years, 3 months ago (May 7, 2008)
Published Online	17 years, 3 months ago (May 7, 2008)
Published Print	17 years, 3 months ago (May 16, 2008)

Funders 0

None

BibTeX

@article{McComiskey_2008, title={Direct aerosol forcing: Calculation from observables and sensitivities to inputs}, volume={113}, ISSN={0148-0227}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007jd009170}, DOI={10.1029/2007jd009170}, number={D9}, journal={Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres}, publisher={American Geophysical Union (AGU)}, author={McComiskey, Allison and Schwartz, Stephen E. and Schmid, Beat and Guan, Hong and Lewis, Ernie R. and Ricchiazzi, Paul and Ogren, John A.}, year={2008}, month=may }

JSON

{
  "indexed": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2025,
        7,
        30
      ]
    ],
    "date-time": "2025-07-30T10:27:37Z",
    "timestamp": 1753871257669,
    "version": "3.41.2"
  },
  "reference-count": 44,
  "publisher": "American Geophysical Union (AGU)",
  "issue": "D9",
  "license": [
    {
      "start": {
        "date-parts": [
          [
            2008,
            5,
            7
          ]
        ],
        "date-time": "2008-05-07T00:00:00Z",
        "timestamp": 1210118400000
      },
      "content-version": "vor",
      "delay-in-days": 0,
      "URL": "http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor"
    }
  ],
  "content-domain": {
    "domain": [],
    "crossmark-restriction": false
  },
  "published-print": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2008,
        5,
        16
      ]
    ]
  },
  "abstract": "<jats:p>Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF owing to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface is calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. Sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are also calculated for these conditions. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Absolute total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 3.1 W m<jats:sup>\u22122</jats:sup> for the ranges of properties examined here. Relative total uncertainties range from \u223c20 to 80% with larger values at higher latitudes, where fluxes are low. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is single scattering albedo; however, decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.</jats:p>",
  "DOI": "10.1029/2007jd009170",
  "type": "journal-article",
  "created": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2008,
        5,
        6
      ]
    ],
    "date-time": "2008-05-06T20:03:10Z",
    "timestamp": 1210104190000
  },
  "source": "Crossref",
  "is-referenced-by-count": 158,
  "title": "Direct aerosol forcing: Calculation from observables and sensitivities to inputs",
  "prefix": "10.1029",
  "volume": "113",
  "author": [
    {
      "given": "Allison",
      "family": "McComiskey",
      "sequence": "first",
      "affiliation": [
        {
          "name": "Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences University of Colorado  Boulder Colorado USA"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "given": "Stephen E.",
      "family": "Schwartz",
      "sequence": "additional",
      "affiliation": [
        {
          "name": "Atmospheric Sciences Division Brookhaven National Laboratory  Upton New York USA"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "given": "Beat",
      "family": "Schmid",
      "sequence": "additional",
      "affiliation": [
        {
          "name": "Pacific Northwest National Laboratory  Richland Washington USA"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "given": "Hong",
      "family": "Guan",
      "sequence": "additional",
      "affiliation": [
        {
          "name": "Bay Area Environmental Research Institute  Sonoma California USA"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "given": "Ernie R.",
      "family": "Lewis",
      "sequence": "additional",
      "affiliation": [
        {
          "name": "Atmospheric Sciences Division Brookhaven National Laboratory  Upton New York USA"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "given": "Paul",
      "family": "Ricchiazzi",
      "sequence": "additional",
      "affiliation": [
        {
          "name": "Institute for Computational Earth System Science University of California, Santa Barbara  Santa Barbara California USA"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "given": "John A.",
      "family": "Ogren",
      "sequence": "additional",
      "affiliation": [
        {
          "name": "NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory  Boulder Colorado USA"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "member": "13",
  "published-online": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2008,
        5,
        7
      ]
    ]
  },
  "reference": [
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_2_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/1999JD900172"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_3_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1126/science.1084777"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_4_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1175/BAMS-86-12-1795"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_5_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.5194/acp-6-1657-2006"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_6_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1038/nature04348"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_7_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/1999GL900330"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_8_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/98JD00997"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_9_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1038/348022a0"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_10_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1034/j.1600-0889.1991.t01-1-00013.x"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_11_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1126/science.255.5043.423"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_12_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/95GL00800"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_13_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1016/j.jqsrt.2004.05.058"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_14_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<1135:VOAOPA>2.0.CO;2"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_15_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/2000JD900282"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_16_1",
      "first-page": "289",
      "volume-title": "Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis\u2014Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change",
      "author": "Forster P.",
      "year": "2007"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_17_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1016/j.solener.2003.08.039"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_18_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/2000JD900224"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_19_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/2004JD005293"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_20_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1364/AO.33.005118"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_21_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/95GL00075"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_22_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1016/S0034-4257(98)00031-5"
    },
    {
      "volume-title": "Climate Change 2001\u2014The Scientific Basis:Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change",
      "year": "2001",
      "author": "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)",
      "key": "e_1_2_8_23_1"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_24_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "crossref",
      "DOI": "10.1017/CBO9780511546013",
      "volume-title": "Climate Change 2007\u2014The Physical Science Basis:Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change",
      "author": "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)",
      "year": "2007"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_25_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/2004JD005337"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_26_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/97JD01841"
    },
    {
      "volume-title": "Optical Properties of the Atmosphere",
      "year": "1972",
      "author": "McClatchey R. A.",
      "key": "e_1_2_8_27_1"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_28_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/2005JD006341"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_29_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1126/science.256.5062.1432"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_30_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1175/1520-0477(1994)075<0375:QAMUOC>2.0.CO;2"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_31_1",
      "first-page": "129",
      "volume-title": "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis\u2014Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change",
      "author": "Penner J. E.",
      "year": "2001"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_32_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/1999JD901042"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_33_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/2005JD006812"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_34_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2101:SARATS>2.0.CO;2"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_35_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/97JD00112"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_36_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/2006JD007606"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_37_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1029/2005JD005837"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_38_1",
      "unstructured": "Schmid B. et al. (2007) The sensitivity of shortwave radiative forcing and heating rates to the aerosol vertical profile paper presented atSeventeenth ARM Science Team Meeting Atmos. Radiat. Manage. Program Monterey Calif. 26\u201330 March."
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_39_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.5194/acp-6-5225-2006"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_40_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1080/10473289.2004.10471006"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_41_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1364/AO.27.002502"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_42_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1175/1520-0426(1997)014<0577:AODOOH>2.0.CO;2"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_43_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1127/0941-2948/2001/0010-0045"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_44_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.1175/1520-0469(1976)033<2440:TBFITS>2.0.CO;2"
    },
    {
      "key": "e_1_2_8_45_1",
      "doi-asserted-by": "publisher",
      "DOI": "10.5194/acp-6-613-2006"
    }
  ],
  "container-title": "Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres",
  "original-title": [],
  "language": "en",
  "link": [
    {
      "URL": "https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1029%2F2007JD009170",
      "content-type": "unspecified",
      "content-version": "vor",
      "intended-application": "text-mining"
    },
    {
      "URL": "https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2007JD009170",
      "content-type": "unspecified",
      "content-version": "vor",
      "intended-application": "similarity-checking"
    }
  ],
  "deposited": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2023,
        10,
        13
      ]
    ],
    "date-time": "2023-10-13T00:14:13Z",
    "timestamp": 1697156053000
  },
  "score": 1,
  "resource": {
    "primary": {
      "URL": "https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007JD009170"
    }
  },
  "subtitle": [],
  "short-title": [],
  "issued": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2008,
        5,
        7
      ]
    ]
  },
  "references-count": 44,
  "journal-issue": {
    "issue": "D9",
    "published-print": {
      "date-parts": [
        [
          2008,
          5,
          16
        ]
      ]
    }
  },
  "alternative-id": [
    "10.1029/2007JD009170"
  ],
  "URL": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009170",
  "relation": {},
  "ISSN": [
    "0148-0227"
  ],
  "subject": [],
  "container-title-short": "J. Geophys. Res.",
  "published": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2008,
        5,
        7
      ]
    ]
  },
  "article-number": "2007JD009170"
}